Three losses in the last two years. More than 80 goals scored. The flourishing of talents, taking over Europe – destined to reach heights that even their predecessors were not able to achieve. You might think we’re talking of a growing African nation or a South American or European side in the midst of their Golden Generation, but if you’re on this page reading, we spoiled you already the topic.
There were a lot of smiles at the Saitama Stadium 2002 on Thursday night. The 2-0 home win against Bahrain wasn’t the best performance by Japan in the last 24 months, but it was enough to grant the Samurai Blue the record of being the first team qualified to the 2026 FIFA World Cup (excluding the hosts: USA, Canada, and Mexico). A well-deserved ticket booking, honestly.
And while others might join in a few days – the representative from the OFC, plus Argentina, South Korea, Iran and Uzbekistan are really close to make it -, Japan made it in a sweep, a landslide of a qualifiers round. An absolute domination – only Australia snatched a point from Japan in a home game last October.
But if it’s important to know your own strengths, it’s even more important to fix the weaknesses – especially with the benefit of a full year to prepare. Nothing will ever be perfect for the 2026 tournament, because injuries and performance drops could always be there. Nonetheless, Hajime Moriyasu has three problems to keep in mind in preparation of the 2026 World Cup.
Problem 1: The Precedent
There was another time when Japan had this strange record. It was for the 2014 edition – the one in Brazil. Also in that case, Japan were the first squad to qualify to the World Cup, even squandering a chance of qualifying already in March 2013 (after losing 2-1 in Jordan). Back then, a 1-1 home draw against Australia was enough to close the deal – the penalty by Honda was an appetiser towards the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup.
What looked as an encouraging development – Japan won the 2011 AFC Asian Cup, defeated France and Argentina, won the 2013 EAFF Asian Cup and some talents were going to Europe – became a nightmare. The Confederations Cup was a terrible tournament, Japan struggled to put it together and, in the end, the Samurai Blue came short in Brazil, being knocked out from the Group Stage.
Even there, the enthusiasm and the successes made conquered by head coach Alberto Zaccheroni overlook about some points. Japan arrived to that World Cup with a group which failed in some key-interpreters, with a couple of their stars in a rocky moment in terms of performances. And most of all, without a striker – to the point where Ryoichi Maeda was left home despite contributing a lot in that cycle, while the experiments Yoichiro Kakitani and Yoshito Okubo both failed in Brazil.
The 2022 FIFA World Cup results and the last two years of domination might push the same feeling – especially after agreeing that this group doesn’t have the Shinji Kagawa or the Keisuke Honda from the 2010s (they were at Manchester United and AC Milan at the time), but the average quality is way higher than a decade ago. The only real leaders in this group are probably senator Yuto Nagatomo and captain Wataru Endo.
Problem 2: The Mentality
Japan look a lot like a F1 driver who’s capable of winning from the pole position – if the start is good, he can drive home a victory and even dominate the competition. It looked a lot like this for Japan in the WCQs (dominating weaker sides, even with a very aggressive 3-4-2-1), and in the games where they could easily play in counterattack (Germany twice, Spain).
Whenever though the situation looked more uncertain and tense, talent could partially do the job. It’s incredible how Japan rarely went behind in the last two years – it happened just three times (in a friendly against Uruguay, in the Group Stage match of the Asian Cup against Iraq, and in the WCQ home game against Australia). Result? Two draws and one loss.
The problem is that, in the World Cup, it can happen to go behind, and having the need to turn it around. Actually, to think about it, Japan went down in all three group stage matches of the last FIFA World Cup – winning twice and losing against Costa Rica. But we guess Japan might be expected to face different games in a 48 teams-World Cup, getting a better group than the ones from the previous format.
Efficiency will also be key – just look at the stats. The Samurai Blue produced on average 2.07 xG and conceded 0.69 xGA – with a net difference of +1.38 xG. But in the reality, the scored an average of 3.69 goals and conceded just 0.15. So the actual difference in the Asian WCQs was an average of 3.54 goals – a +1.62 difference from the xG. And that’s by far the best data among Asian sides – proving that talent makes a difference in that occasion.
Japan found finally two decent strikers to play up top – Ayase Ueda is the clear starter, while Koki Ogawa found a way to be his back-up. Furthermore, you have the wild card Shuto Machino to field if needed. And keep in mind how 2025-26 will be fundamental for all three of them, whether they stay or not in their current situations (our take: Ueda will stay in Rotterdam, the other two will find a better team next Summer).
Problem 3: The Depth
Yeah, not up front – it seems Japan are more than covered there, with a further season to find some surprises. Even if you look beyond the striker situation, Japan is stacked on the no. 10s department, on wingers, and even in the midfield (Endo, Tanaka, Hatate, Fujita, Morita is a wonderful situation to be in). Problems might be arise instead if we go further back in the pitch.
First of all – the keeper situation. Despite his progression, the fact he joined Parma in Serie A and the clear starting status from Moriyasu, Zion Suzuki keeps being a problem. He doesn’t offer confidence, an eerie remembrance of the last stint of Eiji Kawashima with the national team. Clearly the kid has a good build-up play in his feet, but that’s not enough to be the no. 1.
Unfortunately, as others already pointed out, is there a better solution available in one year? Probably no. Keisuke Osako has the same issues of Suzuki minus the build-up plays; Kosei Tani was the no. 1 hope after Tokyo 2021, but he got lost between a bad stint in Europe and the return to Japan. Brandon Taishi Nozawa seems an overstretch now, Tomoki Hasakawa is a wild card, and (bummer) Kosuke Nakamura is a free agent since January.
There’s some thinking to do as well around center-backs and wing-backs. Regarding the first ones, the health of Takehiro Tomiyasu is crucial for the next year – he’s been a leader back in Qatar, and Japan needs him. With him, Ko Itakura, and Hiroki Ito – the starting three CBs would be okay and there’d be time to establish the back-ups (Machida for sure, I guess Takai and Seko, plus other wild-cards like Mochizuki).
Wing-backs are an important topic. Kaoru Mitoma and Ritsu Doan featured in those positions, with Keito Nakamura and Junya Ito as back-ups. That’s great quality-wise – but can Japan afford that structure when playing for a quarter-final in the World Cup? That’s a bit up in the air. And if not, which defensive alternatives you have in those roles? Yukinari Sugawara for sure… and Yuto Nagatomo? Nakayama and Sekine?
In the end, Moriyasu will have to think. 2026 will be a key-moment for Japan – there’s the expectations to continue the growing trajectory and dreaming of a Top 8 finish. Although Ritsu Doan made it already clear before the Bahrain game: “We don’t have to win 3-0, 1-0 would be already a good result. We want to win, no matter what. And to whoever says the Top 8 would be solid progress: we’re a group who has the goal of winning the World Cup”.
