Finally a balanced system: 20 teams per each of the tiers of Japanese professional football. And although 20 teams in J1 seem a lot with only four continental spots – some dead rubber-matches are taking place already right now -, J2 really benefited from it. 15 years ago, a season was long 50+ games, now we’re finally back on track with 38. But this change brings other news.
While usually J2 provides a lot of drama relegation-wise, contention might be easier this year, despite three relegation spots with two less teams in the league. Tochigi SC and Kagoshima United FC have been struggling all year long, and Oita Trinita – who had a terrible year until now – are nonetheless far away from them (+6 and +10 with five games to go should be enough).
But three teams going down is something that rarely happen in J2, because often J3 teams didn’t have license and/or stadium. Now this chance is disappearing – and with just 20 teams in J2, “just surviving” isn’t possible anymore. Thespa Gunma are maybe just one of the clubs that will go up and down between J2 and J3 in the next years, but they also represent a future that’s knocking on Japanese football’s door.
Just surviving isn’t enough, and – despite coming 11th last year with 57 points scored on the table -, Gunma learned it the hard way.
“Grey surviving”
What’s exactly that? Well, for a long time in J2, it was possible to just drift by without actually risking anything. That happened especially when J3 wasn’t around, but even when it got founded in 2014, the situation persisted. Even some teams in J3 were performing well, but didn’t have the right requirements to get into J2 (e.g. Blaublitz Akita famously won the J3 in 2017 and couldn’t get promoted at the time).
The exception was indeed 2020 – when COVID-19 froze the chance of getting relegated and four teams avoided the drop both in J1 and in J2. But when J3 wasn’t around, some teams were allowed to just drifting – take Ventforet Kofu in 2000 (7 points in 33 games), Giravanz Kitakyushu in 2010 (15 points in the same number of matches) or Mito HollyHock in 2007 (16).
I’d call it “grey surviving”, but for Thespa this wasn’t conceded this time around. And unfortunately for them, they had a similar experience already in 2017 – when they got relegated, they got an almost worst start than this one. Back then, they gathered 18 points in 33 games, even more/the same that they racked up in 2024. That squad conceded more, but the final result doesn’t change that much.
The Gunma example
2023 felt like a miracle – without the pressure of immediate relegation, Thespa got a 11th place that was incredible. Their squad wasn’t particularly talented, but nonetheless Gunma got closer to the playoffs (-10 from sixth place) than relegation spots (+18 on Omiya Ardjia, who got relegated on 21st place). Only for that run, Tsuyoshi Otsuki – the former Urawa Red Diamonds caretaker – could have been in the run for “Manager of the Year” in J2.
Otsuki took a team that struggled in 2022 with him and brought safely to mid-table. And he did without a single player going in double digits of goals – the best was Ryo Sato, who scored just six goals (!), but was the offensive metronome that Gunma never had. But it was probably a sparkle – because Gunma had one of the worst attacks of J2, and one of the best defences of the league at the same time.
When things started to crumble down defence-wise, Gunma lost 10 of the first 14 games in J2 and Otsuki was let go. Turning that around without goals to offer was basically impossible – in fact, a 2-0 home win by Oita Trinita against Fujieda MYFC already pushed Thespa off the cliff to J3, where they will return after five seasons in J2. But the real questions is: can they actually go back?
The “Glocal Warning”
With just 20 teams in J2, three relegations, and almost all J3 teams capable of getting a J2 license, we’re in front of a new era. Sure, Thespa could go back to J2 next season – who would have thought Omiya Ardija would have dominated J3 this year? -, but there’s a way clearer scenario that’s coming for this kind of club (we could say Tochigi, Mito, and others). The truth is that getting by is over.
Ask Gainare Tottori, Kataller Toyama, FC Gifu if it’s easy to climb back towards J2. And it’ll be harder to keep the category too – because a slip in one season, which could mean doing less than 40 points in 38 games – could be meaning a drop to J3. Look even how a great Prefecture like Nagano should have two teams in J2 resources-wise, but instead Matsumoto Yamaga are still stuck in J3 and Nagano Parceiro can’t get out of there.
Projects like Iwaki FC, Fujieda MYFC, or even Renofa Yamaguchi survive only when there’s a clear direction, whether it’s technical or off-the-pitch. Whoever won’t be able to keep this rhythm will be sucked into the vortex of possible “elevator years” between second and third tier, or even to a long asylum from what it used to be their home. J2 is becoming ruthless and Gunma are a good example to look at for the years to come.
