Fear, doubt, self-reflection: these were just a few of the feelings that threw Japanese football into the deep end after the AFC Asian Cup in January. Having played a mostly-disappointing tournament, and having (deservedly) lost against Iran in the quarter-finals, most of the fans were feeling an eerie sensation after a long streak of wins. Especially after living opposite vibes after the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
That’s why the 2024 AFC U-23 Asian Cup came into the right time – it was a reality check, a wake-up call to understand what was the state of Japanese football. Are our youngsters still the best around? Can they make it to the promised land, and book another ticket for the Olympics? And can the win the whole thing, eight years after the last title, which was won in 2016?
We’ll have to wait a few hours about the last question – final against Uzbekistan will be played soon -, but for sure the troop led by Go Oiwa did its job until now. Japan, alongside the Uzbeks, have qualified for Paris 2024 after beating Iraq 2-0 in the semi-finals, in what was probably the most convincing game of the whole tournament (it could have finished way worse for Iraq).
But now that the Paris ticket has been booked, another question comes right up – can Japan finally take back an Olympic medal of any colour after 56 years? Everything points out to a massive “yes” (and it probably should), because that would be another small brick towards the empowerment of the whole movement. And too many chances have been wasted until now.
Continental hurdles
There was a bit of fear before the tournament because the last two have been a partial disappontment. Sure, 2022 went decently – Japan came third after losing a semifinal against Uzbekistan, but the squad was really solid. Zion Suzuki, Koki Saito, Shunsuke Mito, and Yuito Suzuki were all part of that roster – and right now all of them were unavailable, since
Furthermore, the real open wound is still Tokyo 2020 (or 2021). The failure of Hajime Moriyasu on that cycle was massive – just as big as his feats in the FIFA World Cup. Japan not only didn’t qualify through the tournament (they were knocked in the Group Stage and got to Tokyo only being the home nation), but Moriyasu failed to manage an extremely talented group and got just a fourth place.
It’s not an accident that Moriyasu had to step down at least from the U-23 and leave the duties to Go Oiwa, who isn’t just a good manager – he won the AFC Champions League for Kashima, he brought up the last good generation of Antlers prodigies -, but he’s very good at working with youngsters. Before taking over at Antlers in 2017, he had played in Kashima for eight seasons (retired in 2010), and then worked seven more years as a youth coach.
Oiwa knows his way – and that put the Samurai Blue in a good position, despite the roster wasn’t even 60% with all the talent that Japan could actually field within that age range. No European players, other nations that planned call-ups for this specific tournament (e.g. Australia), plus rising nations (e.g. Uzbekistan, Iraq, Indonesia). Nothing stood in the way of the youngsters, who are now within reach of the title with almost the same group from two years ago.
Under-talented or just solid?
As mentioned, many players were not available for this international window – European clubs (rightfully so) kept almost everyone in the Old Continent. Only five players escaped this kind of rule: Kein Sato (Werder Bremen II), Leo Kokubo (who’s playing with the youngsters of Benfica), Takashi Uchino (from Fortuna Düsseldorf), Rihito Yamammoto and Joel Chima Fujita (both players of St. Truiden).
A few elements were added compared to two years ago. For example, Ryuya Nishio should have been called in 2022, but he was injured last-minute. Ayumu Ohata emerged as a starting option at Urawa Red Diamonds. Sota Kawasaki exploded into J1 with Kyoto Sanga. Satoshi Tanaka came back from one year in Belgium and came back to Shonan Bellmare very much improved. Yu Hirakawa is making wonders with Machida Zelvia.
And then we have another absolute protagonists, of whom we’ll have to talk in a separate piece. The trajectory of Ryotaro Araki has been very, very weird – first absolute prodigy in Kashima, then disappeared within the many changes for the Antlers, and now back to stardom in Tokyo (on loan!) – but his contribution has been nothing but extraordinary with the U-23. If he keeps playing like this, he won’t stay in Japan for much longer.
Two other team mates from Araki were actually already called up for the 2022 edition, but they improved their game even further. Kuryu Matsuki hasn’t been called up yet from Moriyasu, but it’s matter of time, given his level and the captaincy he inherited in Tokyo. Even further, Mao Hosoya confirmed that he’s the true heir of Shinji Okazaki for spacial awareness in the penalty box and absolute understanding of the game.
We’ll always have Paris
The final against Uzbekistan will tell us something more, but it’s clear how the focus is elsewhere. It’d be important to see Japan winning, but the aim should and must be just one: vindicate Tokyo. The disappointment of the tournament from 2021 is still lingering around, and not having Moriyasu at the helm of a talented group will also test his real value as the head coach of the Samurai Blue.
The group is already solid, but it could be definitely improved. We mentioned a few names that were left out – but let’s think. The keeper position could see some positive adds and only two names will make it to Paris. A huge chunk of talent couldn’t be there – the names we already mentioned, but also a few more (e.g. Take Kubo could even be involved age-wise, although it’s unlikely).
And then there’s the doubt around overaged players. As much as we’d like to see Maya Yoshida playing his fourth Olympics and break the record for games played at the football tournament, we’ll probably get different names. Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ko Itakura and Wataru Endo were already rumoured to join, which would make sense (and it’d be the third Olympic Games for the Liverpool midfielder, after 2016 and 2020).
But most of all the group in which Japan will end up will be crucial. Group C and Group D are more than doable, while Group B could be insidious – facing Argentina, Morocco, and Ukraine could be harder to reach the Top 2. Avoiding France will be crucial as well – but Japan can and should make the best out of this upcoming challenge. And the best should be a medal.
