I had kinda prepared this piece. The title was there, the possible loss already scripted. Did I do it to scare away the bad luck? Or did I honestly think that Brazil were not beatable? Probably neither, but it’s easier to write these lines after the end of the Round of 32 match in Houston, where Japan just lost (again) in a knock-out game. It’s the fifth time that happens, and it happened again in injury time, against a stronger, but very confusional Brazilian side.
I don’t wanna dwell too much on the game – you can find a dedicated newsletter on Substack called “The Hopeful Eight”. I have to be honest: it hurts as well less than all the other four eliminations. In 2002, Japan were playing at home; in 2010 and in 2022, they lost at the PKs; in 2018, it was a terrible night, but Belgium were the strongest side we’ve ever faced in a knock-out match. And three of these four sides ended third, so… good luck to Brazil, I guess?
But the writing is on the wall now. Injuries played a big part in this tournament – no captain Wataru Endo, no Mitoma, no Minamino, Kubo injured along the way, and both Tomiyasu and Itakura arrived to this tournament with mediocre condition. Furthermore, Brazil might be a shadow of what they used to be even eight years ago, but they’re still Brazil – they hold an experience and a football power that Japan have still to build up.
Nonetheless, this group pledged that the FIFA World Cup wasn’t just a goal, the aim was to win it. And although no one of the fans believed this as a realistic objective… was to be crushed out at the first hurdle of the knock-out stage another one? Or is it another disappointment for Japan, who fell again when everyone was expecting something else? Now it’s time to understand which lessons to bring with us next.
The Appointments
There’s not too much time to lose. While European and South American teams can just bask in the light of this competition, the AFC Asian Cup comes soon. In January, the tournament will be held in Saudi Arabia and I think there’s no more margin of error for the Samurai Blue – who won it four times, but the last one was in 2011. From there, quarter-finals exit in 2015, final loss in 2019, and other quarter-finals exit in 2023.
Many say it’s a secondary platform for Japan… but I’m sorry, it’s not anymore when you haven’t won it for 16 years. It’s an imperative to go in Saudi Arabia to win it, even with a softened and newly-injected squad. There are no excuses. I really hope to see a refreshed team, with some new energies – leave at home the ones who are already sure of their spot in the national team, and engage with new talent who could use the tournament as a way to shine.
Furthermore, it might look secondary (this time for real), but Japan have still to snatch a proper Olympic medal. They failed in 2012 and 2020, when they were close and finished in both cases in fourth place. The 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles will see for the first time a reduced version of the football competition – FIFA agreed to have just 12 teams for the men’s tournament, while the women’s version will see an increased number (up to 16).
Japan are still dominating Asia in the youth sectors, and it’s imperative they have something to show for it. The Olympic Games are a good chance to do so; plus, the hope is to see the young Samurai Blue to a final of a FIFA World Cup in the youth competitions – the last one they reached with the men’s team was in 1999. The U-20 never went past the Round of 16 since 2003; the U-17 recently reached the quarter finals in 2025, but they never did better than that.
The Players
There’s going to be some reasoning on the players as well. This roster will probably change. Wataru Endo already retired once he knew participating to this FIFA World Cup wasn’t possible. Shogo Taniguchi played a wonderful tournament, but he’s 34. Same for Junya Ito (33), and it’s tough to imagine Takumi Minamino being around again (he’s 31). Not to mention Yuto Nagatomo, who probably played his last game with the national team against Sweden in the group stage (legend).
There are then a few new faces who need to be introduced: Ryunosuke Sato is a golden talent, and he’s on his way to Valencia, and he could be a good pick for the AFC Asian Cup. Kodai Sano and Satoshi Tanaka might need a second shot at this, given Endo’s retirement. And one of the faces we haven’t seen that much in this FIFA World Cup was Keisuke Goto, who featured just a few minutes against Tunisia – and who could be a solid card to play in Saudi Arabia.
And then there’s a particular group – the ones who need a new or a first shot. But they’re not young, they’ve either been a part of this group or they were rumoured to be. Don’t forget that Kaoru Mitoma will be 33 in 2030, and I hope he’ll be a solid part of the next cycle. Hidemasa Morita was for long labelled not a fit for this tournament, but he would have been very useful. And don’t forget about Yuma Suzuki – who’s still 28, and ready to rock the world.
Finally, a word about the captaincy. Endo is out, Minamino probably will be, and we had three different players wearing the armband at this FIFA World Cup. I don’t see Itakura as a good fit, and Taniguchi won’t be there. I hope the head coach will opt for a “co-captaincy”, because there are two class ’98 who are very good, they have two FIFA World Cup editions under their belt, and they’ll be 32 and ready in 2030: Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ritsu Doan.
The Manager
And that’s where the problem erupts. Yeah, because already in 2022, I suggested that the JFA should have thrown Hajime Moriyasu away, because the wins against Germany and Spain in that tournament were generated from a reactive attitude. After the Group Stage, the renewal of Moriyasu seemed a formality, giving him a new four year-deal and transforming him into a sort of Didier Deschamps of the Japanese national team.
Indeed, I think the second cycle under Moriyasu went way better than the first one. An identity was built, so much that the imprinting overwrote the absences. The group rallied around him, with the players being happy of having him as a coach. There were definitely good results, and several players were developed under him, including some that were ostracized in his first WC cycle (yes, Kaoru Mitoma).
But there are some negatives. For example? Well, the 2024 AFC Asian Cup was abysmal. Just like today against Brazil, the quarter-finals against Iran – lost 2-1 with a dreadful performance – showed all the limits of Moriyasu’s approach. There’s been some reluctance as well in including players who are not a fit (Hidemasa Morita) or could be disruptive of the mood of the group (Yuma Suzuki). But those are the players who make dreams come true.
For me, Japan would need another manager to unlock the final part of that potential. And it’d be nice to see Moriyasu back in the J.League as well. The JFA seemed pretty sure of the renewal before the exit against Brazil, but who knows what will happen in the next weeks. It could very also be the chance for JFA president, Tsuneyasu Miyamoto, to shuffle things around and look for a new approach (and if you ask me, there’s one guy who would fit the bill perfectly).
See you in another four years, hopefully without hydration breaks, news around Japanese tidiness, and no more knock-out stage losses.
