The Sagacity of Football

December 3rd, 2011 – it’s a grey day at the EKIMAE REAL ESTATE Stadium in Tosu, Saga Prefecture.It’s game 38 of the 2011 J2 League, and Sagan Tosu are hosting Roasso Kumamoto. Sagan Tosu are on the brink of getting promoted for the first time to J1, but they want to give their fans another satisfaction in an already blessed season. Unfortunately, Kumamoto are leading 2-1 towards the end of the game.

It’s the 76th minute when the ball gets dropped from a corner kick. Roasso’s keeper isn’t good on pushing back, so the ball comes to the other side of the area, where a lonely defender is ready to kick it in goal. The Roasso player tries to avoid the equaliser, but it’s too late: 2-2. In Tosu they can basically celebrate then, because a point is enough to finish in the Top 3 (furthermore, Tokushima Vortis – the closest rival – will lose in Okayama).

At the final whistle, players are hugging each other. The man who scored the equaliser hugs the captain – they joined Sagan Tosu at the same time (Feb. 2010). The defender, no. 2, is 33 years old – he had already quite a career as a pro player. The captain, a midfielder with the no. 14, is just 24 – but he’s got the personality to lead the team, and will enjoy a career as a solid J.Leaguer. Little did the two know… 

At that time, that goal was going to be the last one scored by Sagan in the second division for a long time. It’s funny, but the two men found each other again in a grey-er day, like today – October 19th, 2024. One is on the bench, and after retiring, he became a coach; the other came back to Tosu to be a senator. Kosuke Kitani and Naoyuki Fujita are probably the ones most heart-broken about Sagan Tosu getting back to J2 after 13 years.

The Size of a Miracle

To put in context Sagan’s run in J1, let’s remember where Japanese football was in 2011. The Samurai Blue just won the AFC Asian Cup under head coach Alberto Zaccheroni – back then, only nine players who featured in European football. Kashiwa Reysol snatched a title as a newly-promoted team. Among the players that Moriyasu called up for the last int’l break, only Yuto Nagatomo and Wataru Endo had already debuted as a pro.

Not only that – because J.League-wise, Sagan Tosu had until now endured the longest streak of seasons in J1 (13) behind the three non-relegated teams (Marinos, Antlers, Reds) plus Kawasaki Frontale (who have been in J1 since 2004) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (who got back from relegation in ’09). Former champions like Gamba Osaka, Vissel Kobe, Nagoya Grampus, and Kashiwa Reysol have all endured one relegation since 2012.

Sagan themselves changed a lot in these years. Just like at their first line-up in the debut game of their J1 League’s run. March 10th, 2012 – a 0-0 away in Osaka against Cerezo. Sagan Tosu: Akahoshi in goal; Kim Kun-hoan, Yeo Seong-hae, Isozaki, Niwa at the back; Yoshiki Takahashi and Naoyuki Fujita as holding midfielders; Kim Min-woo, Kota Mizunuma, and Kei Ikeda, all behind striker Yohei Toyoda.

This run brought some magical seasons – 5th in their debut (almost in ACL territory), fifth again in 2014 (and they were leading J1 in August!), eighth in 2017, seventh in 2020. Besides the period between 2018 and 2020, they rarely suffered relegation scares. And Tosu – population 75,000, not even the capital city of the 42nd largest Prefecture of the 47 in Japan – had the chance of witness top-flight football for more than a decade. That’s unbelievable.

Why 2024 Was Bad?

But why this magic suddenly run out? Most of people would point towards Kenta Kawai, the head coach who led Sagan Tosu in the last 2.5 years before being sacked last August. He was really a solid, steady hand to coach Sagan, but Tosu entered the relegation zone on Matchday 6, left it for a couple of months, and then re-joined the bottom three after losing 3-0 away @ Kashima Antlers. Board changed the manager, but the problems were probably lying somewhere else.

First: Sagan Tosu always had players capable of surprising, but some of them have not done that this season. The club scored 39 goals, which is just one less than Cerezo Osaka or 10 more than Avispa Fukuoka, who are in a completely different zone of the table. But conceding 65 goals (the worst defence of the league) puts an immediate spell on any chance of avoiding relegation.

Second: Sagan Tosu have lost some players, especially mid-season in 2024. Costly departures – like So Kawahara (who left for Kawasaki Frontale) or Yoichi Naganuma (who joined Urawa Red Diamonds). Ayumu Yokoyama left Tosu to play in the English League One with Birmingham City, and even it wasn’t about transfers, it became about injuries (e.g. Marcelo Ryan scored 12 goals, but got injured in a crucial moment).

Even the game that basically got Sagan relegated was a good manifest of this season. With the chance of reducing the distance from Kyoto Sanga from 12 to nine points (and with a one-man advantage for 80 minutes), Sagan lost 2-0 in Kyoto. They shot less than the opponent, they had just slightly more ball-possession than Sanga (58% against 42%). And Sagan basically lost all the six-pointers in the second part of the season.

The Grim Reality

Ok, now what? J1 has been full of teams capable of coming back from a relegation, but Sagan’s parabola might look a lot like the one from Ventforet Kofu. Funny enough, Kofu were the big news in the season before Tosu debuted – they had the top-scorer in Mike Havenaar, they almost avoided relegation, but suffered it in the end. Then, in 2012, they won J2 by a landslide and got back to J1, surviving there five more years.

The problem, though, is that Kofu are a good example of the other case Sagan might encounter – perennial J2 status. JEF United Chiba have been there 15 years, Shimizu S-Pulse have fell there twice, and it took Tokyo Verdy 16 years to come back to the top-flight. So clearly it’s not super easy to climb back, especially when your resources might be limited – and Tosu’s possibilities lie most within the youngsters.

Last but not least, this will also modify the Kyushu-football geography. V-Varen Nagasaki have still shot at coming up to J1 through the play-offs, but if they won’t – J2 League next year will be basically all Kyushu’s. Tosu, Nagasaki, but also Oita Trinita and Roasso Kumamoto – plus Giravanz Kitakyushu have still a shot at coming up from J3 through the newly-installed play-offs. 

Roster will have to be reshaped – how many will actually stay? Park Iru-gyu might finally try his hand at another J1 club, Marcelo Ryan will have definitely interest, and players like Akito Fukuta and Wataru Harada might find another gig in the top-flight. The South Korean ownership at Tosu will need to think properly about the future – but let’s not forget how this has been a miracle in all of its parts.