Trust the Process

It’s December 6th, 2015. The last match of that year’s J2 season is going on. In three promotion/relegation playouts happened between the 21st-placed team in J2 and the runners-up in J3, only one team lost. Kamatamare Sanuki and Zweigen Kanazawa survived both to their opponents, respectively in 2014 against Nagano Parceiro and in 2016 against Tochigi SC.

At that time, things are not working out in the same manner for Oita Trinita. After a dreadful campaign, the Kyushu-based side is facing Machida Zelvia. They lost 2-1 in the first leg in Machida, but they hope to come back in front of their crowd of 14,217 people (solid figures for a playout game).

Instead, the guests have no mercy: a penalty by Koji Suzuki seals the deal and the whole second half shows the ghosts of a squad who played in J1 just two years before. There are four members who featured in those playouts and they’re still part of the squad: Kazushi Mitsuhira, Yoshinori Suzuki, Rei Matsumoto, Kosei Isa. There’s also Yusuke Goto, who hasn’t played a single minute on the pitch during those two games.

It’s the first time a club which has played a single J1-season has dropped in the third tier. Manager Nobuaki Yanagida resigned and Oita have to look out for a new man to guide the project. They pick a man who hasn’t enjoyed such a huge success as a player, but closed his career on the pitch with Trinita.

He started his coaching career there, but then he witnessed three different J. League titles as a well-known assistant coach (two in Hiroshima, one in Osaka with Gamba). That man is Tomohiro Katanosaka. Somehow, on that January 2016, Trinita’s incredible rise back to the top begins.

P. I – Rebuilding

To start again, you need to rejuvenate your roster. And that Oita do indeed, but they’ve also to renounce to some promising players, like Hirotaka Tameda (who though didn’t grow as expected). They bring in instead experienced players and young renegades, jumping from Satoru Yamagishi to the promotion to the first team of profiles like Tomoki Iwata and Tsubasa Yoshihira.

The first match under Katanosaka’s steady hand is a 1-0 home win against J3-favorites Nagano Parceiro. Winning goal by Yusuke Goto, one of the crucial members to rise again through the ranks of Japanese football. Many profiles grow in that year under Katanosaka: Yoshinori Suzuki, Naoto Kamifukumoto, Iwata himself; Takumi Kiyomoto is one of the heroes of that season, scoring amazing goals throughout the year.

There’s a problem though: Tochigi SC – who were relegated from J2 in 2015 in last place, behind Oita in the table – have taken the command of the table and they seem unbeatable. Oita have lost indeed both games against Tochigi and the Kyushu-based club doesn’t seem capable of conquering the top, the only spot which would have actually granted direct promotion.

That year, Oita Trinita have been at the top for just three matchdays. But they’ve overcome Tochigi at the right time: with a run of nine wins in the last 11 games, Katanosaka and his boys have clinched the title. Tochigi lost on Matchday 29 at home against Nagano Parceiro; on the last day, they haven’t been able of beating Grulla Morioka away, while Oita triumphed in Tottori against Gainare to win the championship.

Goals are scored by relevant figures in the club: while the whole fandom is crying for the departure and retirement of Daiki Takamatsu – “Mr. Trinita” himself –, the 4-2 away success in Tottori is marked by the goals of Kazushi Mitsuhira – who came back and forth to the club – and two youngsters, Tomoki Iwata and Yoshinori Suzuki.

It’s the mark of something bigger coming.

P. II – Developing

Back to J2 business, the opera of reinforcement is clear and sealed. During the Winter 2016-17, the core of the squad stays, while many expert players come to help the youngsters in a further development. In the 3-4-2-1 of Katanosaka, Kyohei Kuroki, Akira Takeuchi, Koki Kotegawa and Jun Suzuki are all useful. Despite these signings, Oita had the youngest roster in that season.

While fan favorite Takumi Kiyomoto unfortunately is off all season due to an injury, two key-signings happen though that Winter. The first is Shun Takagi: he’s a keeper with already some experience under his belt, but – beside a full season on loan at JEF United Chiba – he has never had a real shot in a project. Naoto Kamifukumoto is still the starter, but something is growing under the surface.

The second key-move is to bring in Ryosuke Maeda, who hasn’t played that much for Vissel Kobe. He should be a winger, but somehow Katanosaka rebuilds him as a central midfielder, a mezzala with a strong pace. Just like Takagi, he’s not the starter in 2017, but he learns a lot and in Kobe they aren’t interested in bringing him back. They’ll be sorely wrong, given their options in the midfield in the two years after this decision.

At the same time, Oita play a fun brand of football, trying constantly to build the action from the keeper. The three CBs-formation helps this kind of plays and for Trinita works pretty fine: they’ve never been in real contention for the playoffs zone (they spend only five matchdays in that part of the table, all in the first part of the season), but they end the 2017 in the ninth place, just four points shy of a post-season game.

Despite this, they’ve been particularly impressive in away games, where they end up third on the table. They win in Fukuoka, in Hiratsuka, in Nagoya, in Yamaga. There’s potential there, there’s just an extra inch to pursue in order to change their destiny and actually fight for promotion: Katanosaka knows it well and he goes all in the upcoming Winter transfer market window.

In that Winter, Oita lose Kamifukumoto (he moved to Verdy), the retirees (Yamagishi and Yamaguchi) and Jun Suzuki (back to Avispa). But the youngsters now are perfectly conscious of their role in the squad, while new signings will shape the course of that season: among everyone new brought in that Winter, Noriaki Fujimoto, Yuji Hoshi and Takuya Marutani will play their part.

Especially the former no. 9 of Kagoshima United FC – who won twice the top-scorer’s title in J3 League – seems the perfect upgrade for Oita’s forwards line. Fujimoto is capable of playing as a main striker, but he integrates himself perfectly with Yusuke Goto: they’re both no. 9, but they’re both capable of featuring as a secondary striker. This will bring amazing things to happen during the year.

The goal is clear: while in 2017 Oita were looking for safety, this time they want to collect at least 70 points and a playoffs spot. This is easy to spot also by the average age of the squad, since Oita jump suddenly from being the youngest roster in the category to become the fourth-oldest team of the league. But this will work.

Oita end up spending half of their season in the Top 2 spots. Direct promotion was tough to clinch, but it was deserved. In a really balanced year, Trinita showed an upgrade of their #OitaBall and – at the same time – they keep developing players. All of this while getting results and things done: despite a final scare – they lose both in Yokohama and in Machida, both playoffs contenders –, a 1-1 away draw in Yamagata is enough to take a spot in J1.

Only goal difference separates Trinita from Yokohama FC, but their path to the return to the top tier has been filled with glory. They had eight games with 4+ goals scored, the best attack of the tournament (76 goals scored) and featured four players in the double digits of goals. They were just one point behind J2 champions. Katanosaka had definitely done his job.

But he wasn’t done with that.

P. III – Shocking

The first achievement was in pre-season, because Oita basically lost no one due to market scrambles and they managed to keep everyone around. Not only that, because many players were added to expand the roster: some of them even hadn’t a real chance to impact (I’m thinking about Ryotaro Ito, who was magnificent with Mito and played few games in Kyushu, or Seigo Kobayashi, who I was expecting to be more involved).

Last Winter, Oita built themselves a valuable future by purchasing several good players and promising youngsters. Yuto Misao and Honoya Shoji helped in shaping the defense; Ryosuke Kojima was even involved with JNT during this season, despite being a back-up for Takagi; Ryosuke Maeda was confirmed with a permanent deal, Thitiphan Puangjan had a decent first year in Japan and Kaoru Takayama added a lot of experience in the squad.

Two signings though emerged among others: the first was the loan of Ado Onaiwu, who had scored 22 goals with Renofa Yamaguchi in J2 the year before. Still property of Urawa Red Diamonds, the class ’95 proved he was able to play with Fujimoto just like Goto, but being more efficient in front of goal. He closed the year with double digits of goals and now he’s back to Urawa to go for a third good season in a row.

The second move was Kazuki Kozuka: he has been instrumental for #OitaBall. We’d dare to say he’s the perfect player to smooth the flow of the ball around the pitch. Basically, a way upgraded version of Koki Kotegawa, who in fact featured just six times in J1 this year. Signing him from Ventforet Kofu was the best decision Oita could have taken back in that Winter.

Takagi; Iwata, Suzuki, Y. Misao; Matsumoto, R. Maeda/Thitiphan, Shimakawa, Takayama; Kozuka; Fujimoto, Onaiwu. This starting XI was largely tipped to go down like a bullet back to J2. Despite these predictions, we spotted something in this team that went beyond the simple roster. The brand of football had a recognizable identity and we weren’t sure as well to see Oita just getting relegated without any effort.

But the first games surprised us more than everyone: Trinita won 2-1 away on the pitch of the Asian champions, Kashima Antlers. Noriaki Fujimoto’s brace was enough to clinch a great win, which was followed by many solid results. After 13 games, Oita were in the full contention for an ACL-spot. They then lost Fujimoto in the second part of the season and dropped in performances, but they were impressive.

Oita managed to have their worst position in 2019 table only on the last Matchday, when they lost 2-0 at home against Cerezo Osaka. But their worst position was the final one, ninth. Trinita were never even close to relegation zone, while other sides – like Gamba and Vissel themselves, the ones that tied their amount of points – risked it all throughout the season. J2 champions, Matsumoto Yamaga, dropped in J2 with one game to go.

After winning the title of “Manager of the Year” in J2 the previous season, the same happened in J1, despite all the deserved wave of sanctification for Ange Postecoglou and his amazing work in Yokohama. And we’d say that’s fair, because bringing Oita at the same level of a powerhouse like Gamba and a money splashing-project like Vissel wasn’t set in stone.

P. IV – Evolving

The real question that hangs in the air right now is how Trinita will comply with the loss of certain players and with the “second product-syndrome”. Just like Shonan Bellmare taught us in 2016 under Cho Kwi-jea, it’s not easy to have a surprising season (they ended eighth in 2015), but it’s way tougher than that to confirm yourselves at certain heights (they got relegated the successive season). And Oita will face that kind of challenge next year.

You would say there are certain clubs at risk of being relegated: beside the newcomers (although we wouldn’t put Kashiwa in the same risk-rate of Yokohama FC), Sagan, Shonan, Shimizu, Nagoya and maybe even Urawa are in the same pack. And you can certainly expect that a club in the top half of 2019 table might have a drop in performances. But will that be enough for Oita to survive?

The Winter market isn’t going so badly. Shoji has returned to Cerezo Osaka, just like Ito and Onaiwu to Urawa (although the latter then joined Marinos). Marutani has retired, while Goto has just signed for S-Pulse. But signings have been solid until now: Yuki Kagawa from V-Varen Nagasaki might deepen the choice for the three CBs, Machida and Nomura will serve as an alternative and a good go-to-guy for the club. Kei Chinen and Daiki Watari are surely valid assets, although you wonder how they’ll cope with each other up front.

The hope – and maybe the belief – of Katanosaka is that #OitaBall will continue to work, despite opponents have one more year on their shoulders to figure out how to block Trinita’s brand of football. In the end, he drew a masterplan: after Sagan, Avispa, V-Varen monopolized the region in terms of attention, he brought back Oita to the map of Japanese football.

Ten years after the major trophy won by the club – the ‘08 J. League Cup, won with a roster which featured players like Masato Morishige, Mu Kanazaki, Hiroshi Kiyotake and Akihiro Ienaga –, Trinita have now created a new generation of future J. Leaguers and possible national team-members. Only time will tell if this miracle is destined to stand up to the passing of time.